Search results

Aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to that of long‐term solar conditions – long term meaning decades or centuries. The model is based on the postulate that since in a previous analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and some aspects of geospheric phenomena are powered by energy from the sun, now or in the past, the long‐term behaviour of such phenomena is ultimately “connected” to long‐term changes occurring in the sun itself. Proposes and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long‐term solar activity; introduces a transfer‐function for modelling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection; and probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely non‐linear. Presents the theory of the concept, and demonstrates its pertinence to terrestrial phenomena.

A relatively simple function derived from Benouilli’s differential equation and given the class name “metalogistic” is shown to be an efficient descriptor of the dynamics of a number of important American aggregates. These include five demographic, i.e. population, urbanization, immigration, birth‐rate, and death‐rate over the 1820‐1992 time period; and six socio‐economic, that is gross national product, GNP deflator, civilian labour force, unemployment, total energy in BTU, and a surrogate of higher knowledge, these over the 1880‐1992 time period. The descriptor in each case is defined by parameters derived from the data through regression, with model efficacy measured by an R² > 0.90 in almost all cases.

The time course of the S&P500 stockmarket index is shown to proceed in wavelets of approximately the same duration, wavelets riding on a long‐term trend line. These two features render possible an objective projection of the index into the future using a cybernetic approach.